Introduction 

In recent years, the United Kingdom has undergone significant socio-economic changes, with two major events dominating headlines and impacting the lives of millions: Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. This article seeks to explore the intricate relationship between these two monumental events and their combined effect on the UK's employment rate. We delve into how Brexit, with its sweeping changes to immigration policy and economic relations, intersects with the global upheaval caused by the pandemic, creating unique challenges and opportunities within the UK labour market. By analyzing data from the Office for National Statistics and other relevant sources, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these events have shaped employment trends, influencing sectors differently and reshaping the workforce landscape in the UK.

Overview of employment rate trends

The UK's employment rate data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates fluctuations over several decades. Key points include:

- A general increase in employment rates from the early 1970s, reaching highs in the mid-2010s.

- A slight decline in employment rates from 2020 onwards, with the rate estimated at 75.5% in May to July 2023, reflecting a decrease from previous quarters and pre-pandemic levels..

Impact of brexit on the UK labour market

Brexit significantly altered the UK's immigration policy, ending free movement and favoring a system that prioritizes skilled workers. This policy change has had various implications for the UK labour market:

- A notable shortage of labour, especially in sectors like health and social care, transport, and hospitality, attributed partly to a reduction in EU-origin workers and an increase in non-EU workers, though not enough to fill the gap left by EU workers.

- A significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers by September 2022, which was only partially offset by an increase of approximately 130,000 non-EU workers.

- The new system, while being more liberal for skilled sectors, proved too restrictive for low-skilled sectors, contributing to labour shortages in these areas.

Employment trends post-brexit and during COVID-19

The ONS data shows that:

- Employment fell by 466,000 in the year ending September 2021, particularly affecting younger workers and those in elementary occupations.

- There was an increase in the average age of those employed, with a decrease in younger workers and a rise in older workers.

- Record job vacancies were reported in late 2021, indicating a tightening labour market with fewer people available to fill vacancies.

- Businesses reported difficulties in filling vacancies due to a low number of applications and a lack of qualified applicants.

Changes in workforce dynamics

The workforce dynamics post-Brexit and during the pandemic show:

- An increased inactivity in older workers and a rise in early retirements.

- A shift in the types of jobs people are doing, with a decrease in lower-skilled occupations and an increase in higher-skilled roles.

- Changes in pay, with nominal median hourly pay growing despite the impact of the furlough scheme and shifts in the composition of the labour force.

Conclusion

The correlation between Brexit and the UK's employment rate is influenced by a combination of the new immigration policy, the economic aftermath of Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic. While Brexit's impact on reducing EU-origin workers in the UK has been significant, leading to labour shortages in certain sectors, the overall employment trends are also affected by broader economic and demographic shifts. As the UK continues to adapt to its post-Brexit reality, these trends may evolve further, influenced by policy adjustments and global economic conditions.